The Nitrogen Index and the analysis below draws on the prices and insight provided in the Weekly Profercy Nitrogen Report, published through the Profercy Nitrogen Service. For more information and a free trial, please click here and provide your details. The Service includes, daily news and updates, comprehensive weekly analysis and prices, as well as monthly price forecast reports.
- US Gulf urea prices dip, Middle East urea netbacks from US slip
- India adds to volumes secured under last tender as Pakistan prepares for tenders next week
- Europe faces currency woes, supporting nitrate price increase in Germany
Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index saw little change this week. With urea prices bottoming out towards the end of October, the Index has since moved in a very narrow range.
Urea prices appear to have firmed slightly in a number of markets in the West this week, the notable exception being the US Gulf where the low end of Profercy’s barge price quote for granular urea dropped. This subsequently brought down Middle East granular urea price utilised in the Nitrogen Index. However , market fundamentals do not suggest a further major price correction is likely. Indeed, Middle East product has been selling well into Europe.
In the East, attention remains focused on China and India. India secured large volumes of Chinese urea through a purchasing tender last week, adding further volumes this week. Despite this, many in the market expect India to require further tonnes. An added complication is that China is now in its high export tax period. Further Indian subcontinent demand will be evident next week with Pakistan holding tenders for over 400,000t of urea.
Beyond urea, it is worth noting the impact of the weak euro, now at its lowest level against the dollar since August 2012. While the average Egyptian granular urea price quoted by Profercy has only increased by $2pt since 16 October, the euro equivalent price has increased by €10pt. With all nitrogen products intrinsically linked on a nitrogen value basis, the falling euro played a role in supporting the increase in the German CAN price by €5pt this week.
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Profercy World Nitrogen Index: Methodology
The Profercy World Nitrogen Index is published every week and is based on price ranges provided by the Profercy Nitrogen Service. This includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, AN, ammonium sulphate and ammonia. A full methodology can be found here.
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Profercy’s Nitrogen Service includes daily news, weekly analysis and monthly forecast reports. For more detailed information on specific products and individual markets, please sign up for a free trial or for more information on the Profercy Nitrogen Service, please click here.