Profercy World Nitrogen Index
Profercy's Nitrogen Index utilizes key global nitrogen fertilizer prices to derive a value for nitrogen as a crop nutrient. The Index provides a useful and straightforward tool to gauge the overall health of the World market for nitrogen fertilizers.
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Week 45 – Global urea values fall on weak demand
Global urea values were pressured this week by weak demand in key western markets including Brazil and Europe.
In the West, many players with November cargoes in hand have started to chase fresh business, driving prices lower. European offseason demand has been sluggish pressured by a combination of poor weather and affordability. Distributors in the region have been largely unfazed by high gas prices, looking to draw down on existing inventory rather than secure more volumes.
An absence of European demand has also more than offset increased gas production cuts to producers in Egypt. Mopco, Abu Qir and Egyptian Fertilizer Company are now facing gas reductions of 33% below normal levels. Notwithstanding, the Egypt fob granular urea price fell by $17.50pt fob over the week.
In Brazil, distributors and major importers have remained cautious in procuring new volumes, despite a sharp drop in nitrogen imports over the past year. The Brazil granular urea price fell by $7.50pt cfr this week, with buying in the country also hampered by credit challenges and uncertain farm level demand. January to October nitrogen imports fell by 18% versus the year-ago period.
In the US, Nola granular urea values fell this week, with few retailers chasing product with the market in the offseason. The import line up for H2 2026 is higher than for the past two years, although arrivals typically build in Q1. The US will likely need to attract cargoes from alternative destinations over the period given ongoing disruption in volumes from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In the East, offseason demand in SE Asia is weak with no significant inquiries circulating. Several expect that India’s National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) will tender in the week ahead, targeting shipments into December. Volume estimates vary, with latest indications suggesting a target purchase of 1.5m. tonnes. The country’s inventory levels are relatively firm, with urea stocks at 10.3m. tonnes as of 10 November, up from 7.2m. tonnes a year ago, according to Department of Fertilizer figures.
The Profercy Nitrogen Index dropped 2.43 points to 220.31.
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