Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 37 – Urea price rally continues amid tight granular supply 

Global urea values continue to firm as the market weighs the strength of western demand at a time of ongoing conflict in the Middle East, shipping disruptions in the Baltic, firm grain markets and advancing European gas prices. 

US buyers have been actively looking to source Q4 arrivals in anticipation of disrupted contract supply from the Middle East, with barge values at their highest level since the Q2 2025 in-season rally, excluding business that took place in the wake of the US-Iran conflict. 

Brazil is lagging some $30pt behind US values with concerns over farm-level demand resulting in poor liquidity. Still, with the usual Q4 Middle East contract supply not guaranteed and Brazil behind on nitrogen imports, prices have been moving consistently higher in recent weeks. 

High feedstock costs have started to impact European nitrogen production rates, with nitrates producers raising offers while importers in Poland, France and some Mediterranean markets have lined up African granular urea. Algerian and Nigerian granular urea fob values have advanced roughly $30pt, while the rate of increase for Egyptian product is lagging behind given the impact of freight costs on the largely small lots available. 

The issuance of a third round of Chinese urea export quotas has done little to shake off the price rally, given exports will be largely prills and those volumes have few major outlets beyond India. Still, even Chinese prilled prices gained some ground on expectations that India will return for October onwards shipments. 

The Profercy Nitrogen index added 5.21 points on the week to 221.77, a seven-week high.