Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 32 – Chinese desire to export sees India receive offers down to low-$390s pt cfr

China’s willingness to place urea in India has seen lowest offers into the 11 August Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) inquiry land at $390.25-393.65pt cfr, the sharpest offers submitted across both coasts since April 2025.

Basis the above prices, netbacks ex China stand below $370pt fob, some $40pt below prior price targets but still some $100pt above returns in the offseason domestic market. The extent of Chinese participation, which will depend on logistics and inspection timings, is widely estimated at 1-1.5m. tonnes, leaving less space for other suppliers to engage in the tender.

Liquidity elsewhere has been difficult to find with those needing to make sales forced to accept lower levels. Granular urea prices in Brazil dropped on average by $35pt as buyers and suppliers alike revised their price targets in the wake of India.

However, many maintain that Brazil, which is behind on purchases, could face a tighter supply environment during its peak demand in Q3. This is due to anticipated difficulties securing the Middle East supply it typically relies on given vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz currently remains disrupted.  

The Nitrogen Index stands at a five-week low of 200.71, down 13.52 points on the week prior and the largest weekly decline in seven weeks.