Profercy World Nitrogen Index
Profercy's Nitrogen Index utilizes key global nitrogen fertilizer prices to derive a value for nitrogen as a crop nutrient. The Index provides a useful and straightforward tool to gauge the overall health of the World market for nitrogen fertilizers.
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Week 39 – Urea market stalls ahead of Indian tender outcome
After a sustained period of price increases, activity in the urea market stalled as the market weighs ample Chinese prilled export availability ahead of the upcoming Indian inquiry.
Indian Potash Limited (IPL) is set to close a purchasing tender on 7 October for shipments to 1 December. The release of a fourth round of Chinese urea export quotas, largely for prilled product, has all but ensured that India will need few, if any cargoes, from other origins.
While a moderate uptick in urea movement through the Strait of Hormuz has raised optimism about granular availability, flows from the Middle East are still only fraction of their pre-conflict volumes with high freight costs and difficulties sourcing vessels also posing challenges.
Still, with India not competing for product as strongly as it did earlier this year in Q2, buyers elsewhere, including Brazil, are closely watching the outcome of the IPL tender.
Granular urea values in Brazil lost some $10pt on the week as import demand slowed amid concerns about farm-level demand.
US Gulf granular values, which had previously traded at a moderate premium to Brazil amid concerns over Q4 Middle East supply, have also come down by $19ps ton as urea arrivals into November now look comfortable.
The Profercy Nitrogen Index fell for the first time in six weeks by 1.44 points to 224.50.
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