Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 43 – Global urea trade remains subdued

Global urea trade has been lacklustre for another week, with prices generally moving sideways. Persistent supply-side issues and worsening European production economics have provided underlying support, although this has been insufficient to encourage traders to extend length or prompt buyers to move away from just-in-time procurement.

European production economics remain under pressure, with operating rates increasingly in focus. Some nitrate producers have withdrawn from the market and warned that shutdowns may follow, while others continue to utilise offshore ammonia despite firming import costs. However, this has yet to trigger significant offshore urea purchases albeit warehouse values in the likes of France and Poland have held firm despite subdued import activity. 

Egyptian granular urea values have yet to exceed $535pt fob, though Algerian producers are reported to have seen slightly better values. Recent business has left Nigerian producers committed for H1 into H2 November. 

Brazilian demand remains subdued, with election developments and foreign exchange volatility contributing to buyer caution. Offers of non-Chinese granular have eased by around $5-10pt cfr. US Nola values have remained broadly stable and are on par with those in Brazil. 

In the east, India is anticipated to return with another purchasing tender with this demand assumed to be covered by Chinese prilled urea.

The Profercy Nitrogen Index added just 1.12 points week-on-week to 226.08.