India MOP contract deal yields heavily negative import margins

Belarusian supplier BPC has settled the first India standard MOP contract of 2026 with importer IPL at $383pt cfr with 180 days’ credit. The new price is up $34pt, or 10%, from the H2 2025 level of $349pt cfr.

BPC is understood to have agreed to supply IPL with roughly 600,000t MOP for shipments between June and the end of 2026. 

To date, no other suppliers have publicly confirmed 2026 contracts with Indian importers. All other suppliers are expected to follow suit in supplying India at the price of $383pt cfr. The week before the agreement was confirmed, some market sources suggested a settlement was imminent at a price of roughly $385pt cfr. 

Notably, India’s 2026 price is now at a premium of $35pt to China’s, which was settled very early back at the start of December 2025 at an increase of just $2pt from the H2 2025 level. The India premium reflects global spot price gains seen so far in 2026.

India’s new price was within Profercy’s expected range of $380-390pt cfr depending on the timing of the settlement. It accurately reflects the latest sMOP spot prices in Southeast Asia, which at $380-390pt cfr have climbed an average of nearly $30pt since the 2026 China contract was settled.

The India contract price is now at the highest level since H1 2023, when it was $415pt cfr. Suppliers were previously suggested to be targeting a 2026 price as high as $400pt cfr.

BPC was also the first supplier to sign an H2 2025 India contract, settling a price of $349pt cfr with 180 days’ credit with IPL in early June of last year. That price was up $64-66pt, or 23%, from $283-285pt cfr in 2024.

Indian MOP import margins now heavily negative

Following the $34pt yr-on-yr rise in the contract price, the average importer sales margin for direct application MOP in India is now assessed at a significant loss of $51pt. 

The margin calculation is based on the unchanged nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for the Kharif season (April-September), prevailing costs/exchange rates, and the latest reported maximum retail price (MRP).

The negative margin has worsened further from a loss of $9pt in April due to the contract price increase and depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar. The average import margin was previously $2pt in February, which was the last time that it was positive.

The average margin was $4pt in December and $10pt in November 2025 after being as high as $21pt in late October. The current margin is now below the $16-17pt average seen over the previous six years and the $68pt average margin seen during Kharif 2024.

India's MRP expected to be raised

The MRP of MOP in India is for now reported to be unchanged at INR1,750-1,800 per bag. The average MRP of INR1,775 per bag equates to INR35,500pt ($371pt). The MRP has now been flat since late November 2025.

Given how big of a loss Indian MOP importers are now facing, the MRP is expected to increase. While necessary, this is likely to hit potash consumption in India during the second half of the year at a time when sales elsewhere may slow on gradually worsening affordability.