Despite low gas prices in North America, a 40% increase in global urea capacity is unlikely

The last two years have seen numerous nitrogen capacity projects announced, with many of these located in North America. If all projects were built, Profercy estimates that global nitrogen capacity could increase 40% by 2018.

However, many projects fail to break ground and production is never realised. Our latest long term forecast for urea, The Urea Outlook to 2030, provides a critical analysis of these proposed supply additions in the short to medium term, alongside detailed demand and price forecasts.

A brief insight into Profercy’s mid-term supply forecast is provided in the graph below. This suggests that while projects currently in the public domain could lead to around 10%pa urea capacity increases in 2016 and 2017, the likelihood is that less than 4% pa increases will be seen. With this in mind, there are significant implications for global prices and trade patterns.

The above only briefly touches on some of the factors shaping the medium to long term supply outlook for urea. As highlighted above, our latest long term forecast, The Urea Outlook to 2030, provides demand and supply projections to inform Profercy’s long term price forecast for urea to 2030. More information can be found here.

About Profercy’s Long Term Forecasts
Published annually since 2005, the latest report adds to Profercy's catalogue of long term forecasts. The reports have been well received for nearly 10 years and are vital reading for all those affected by changes in urea and nitrogen prices across the world.