Global glut depresses ammonia prices, surprise as Venezuelan spot cargo sails to Spain

Merchant ammonia prices are under growing downward pressure in all key regions on robust supply and softening demand from European industrial users and leading international phosphate producers, with this bearish trend particularly evident in Asia Pacific.

In a busy week for the global market, more than 120,000t of spot material changed hands, with the most notable shipment involving a small cargo from Venezuela that is scheduled to arrive in eastern Spain in about a fortnight.

While further details about the 5-6,000t delivery have yet to emerge, the Castellon-bound material appears to comprise the first shipment of ammonia from the South American country into the European Union for well over a decade.

Previous cargoes of Pequiven product often ended up elsewhere in the Americas, such as Chile and Brazil, as well as Morocco and the USA.

However, due to the republic’s well-documented economic woes of recent years, such shipments have only just restarted after an 18-month hiatus.

Profercy data shows around 35,000t has left Jose Terminal so far this year – mainly for Mexico and Colombia – versus zero exports last year.

The bulk of the 116,000t shipped in 2024 all ended up in Turkey, although one cargo of 22,600t was sold into east coast India.

Chinese Q2 exports up eightfold year-on-year

In Asia Pacific, China continues to ramp up exports – Q2 shipments surged to 530,000t from 66,000t in April-June 2025 –and offers for August loading have slumped to the low-$500s pt fob – down at least 10% from July business.

That bearish picture is repeated in Southeast Asia, with Indonesian netbacks from offers around $600pt cfr into Northeast Asia sitting in the high-$500s pt fob.

Such figures have emboldened Indian buyers and the next batch of spot sales into that important market will likely be concluded at a significant discount to last done.

Despite the escalation in military activity in the Middle East in recent days, players in India and Turkey continue to receiving regular offers of Iranian tonnes, with prices into the latter heard at just above $600pt cfr for August delivery.

This upbeat supply scenario is also seen in the West, with plenty of cargoes heard available for Q3 loading in the US Gulf, Trinidad and North Africa amid far weaker demand from phosphate producers in the US and Morocco hurt by soaring sulphur prices and supply scarcity.

Price targets are unclear for now, but with curtailments at leading DAP/MAP manufacturers still in place, demand from that segment remains weak.

The clear length in the global market was reflected in the large number of spot sales that hit the water worldwide, albeit participants were generally tight-lipped on prices.

However, lower numbers for August cargoes have been heard throughout Asia Pacific and parts of Europe, with deals likely agreed in the next couple of weeks ahead of the main holiday season in the Northern Hemisphere.