Granular prices under pressure; India books large volumes in first major tender of the year

With the exception of ammonia, all nitrogen markets remain weak. Global urea prices have continued their downward trend, with granular urea prices falling by greater levels than prills over the last week.

Demonstrating this point, while Profercy's price range for Yuzhny prilled urea fell by an average of $5pt, the low end of Profercy's range for Middle East spot cargoes fell by $15pt. The drop in Middle East spot cargo prices is a consequence of lower offers in both Latin America and Asia.

India: First major tender sees large Chinese volumes booked

All eyes were on India this week with the first major urea purchasing tender since November 2013. India imports around 8m. tonnes of prilled urea a year to complement domestic production and is the biggest importer. In recent years India has taken a massive share of the urea exports from China with many other origins unable to compete. The latest tender followed a similar pattern and India is understood to have booked large volumes at prices reflecting sub-$310pt fob China. [continued below...]

The index has fallen over 3.6 points this week, with all prices falling in all nitrogen markets, except for ammonia. The index has fallen over 10 points since the beginning of February.

Ammonia remains firm

The ammonia market remains firm with prices increasing again last week for Yuzhny product. One factor supporting this market is the situation in the Ukraine. While there is no news of supply being disrupted from the region - which represents up to 20% of world export supply - buyers have opted to play it safe and have moved to secure product for April.

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Profercy's World Nitrogen Index has fallen by a further 3.6 points, reflecting the weakness in most nitrogen markets. While the ammonia market remains firm, the product has only a 10% weighting on the index reflecting its direct application in the USA (as opposed to industrial uses). As a result, strength in this market is insufficient to mask the bearish trend for other nitrogen products.

On the back of falls in both prilled and granular urea markets,  the Index has fallen by over 10 points since the beginning of April when the previous bullish phase came to an end. 

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index is published every week and is based on price ranges provided by the Profercy Nitrogen Service. This includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, AN, ammonium sulphate and ammonia.

Profercy's Nitrogen Service includes daily news, weekly analysis and monthly forecast reports. For more detailed information on specific products and individual markets, please sign up for a free trial or for more information on the Profercy Nitrogen Service, please click here.

The methodology behind the Profercy World Nitrogen Index can be found here.