Looking ahead to Q2: Profercy's Latest Short Term Forecast

"The general level of urea prices is increasing and this trend is expected to continue into Q1 2014....demand in the West, North America and Europe, has been deferred with the recent price recovery having caught many markets off guard. Given that the preferred grade for Europe and North America is granular, this product has the greatest potential for price improvement henceforth. Prilled urea in the West could/should benefit, particularly if high granular prices lead to some switching. However, granular should still fare better." Profercy Nitrogen Forecast - 25 November

Urea markets have been firm since December. Demand in both the US and Europe has supported price increases for both granular and prilled urea. Since the start of the year granular urea prices in the US Gulf have jumped as much as 21% or not far short of $100ps ton (mid January).

As with any period of rapidly rising prices there is concern that the bubble will burst. Our latest forecast, provided to subscribers today, asks whether this is likely in the short term. While Q1 is expected to remain positive for urea prices, our detailed assessment of global markets in Q2 paints a different picture. 

The latest forecast includes:

• Detailed supply analysis - including an assessment of production and exports by country. Major turnarounds, shutdowns and export constraints are listed and factored into our analysis.
• Forecast import demand - reviewing all major urea import markets.
• Projected market balances for Q2 and global trade balance forecasts to end-June - covering both the East and West for prilled and granular urea.
• An assessment of potential price developments - again, this will cover major markets for urea.

Key issues covered in the latest forecast include Chinese export levels, North African production and exports, support for US import demand and demand in both India and Thailand.  A free trial of the Profercy Nitrogen Service is available by clicking here and submitting your details.

About our short term forecasts

Profercy has been publishing forecasts for the urea market for 10 years. These are widely read by all those affected by world nitrogen prices, including producers, importers, traders, financial analysts and investors.

If you are interested in receiving Profercy's reports, which also include daily updates and weekly analysis, alongside a comprehensive overview of prices, please click here.