Urea prices fall further, but pace of decline slows

• Urea markets quiet – prices in key import markets ease back....
• ....but, pace of price decline slows for granular urea
• Soft market leads to third consecutive fall in Nitrogen Index

The Nitrogen Index has fallen for the third week in a row, finishing 1.84 points below last week. Global nitrogen markets remain soft and the Index has now fallen nearly 8 points in three weeks. Granular prices in the US and Brazil easing, as well as the deferment of European demand, pushed netbacks for Middle East product further down this week.

However, the pace of decline in key markets in the West has slowed and as noted in this week's Profercy Nitrogen Report: "...the urea market does not appear to be in freefall. The recent drop in mostly granular values for product shipping west has been more of a major correction."

For the moment though, buyers in many Western markets are holding back. Indeed, concerns remain over corn prices and the strength of the dollar. Conversely, the latter is supporting nitrate prices in Europe, which have seen a further round of increases despite AN prices in the FSU easing.

The Nitrogen Index finished the week at 172.31 (graphs below).

Q4: Where next for Nitrogen?

Our next detailed forecast for global urea markets is due to be published through the Profercy Nitrogen Service shortly. While the report focuses on key prices and markets, the below table underlines the seasonality of global nitrogen markets and suggests there is little room for the Nitrogen Index to gain significantly in Q4.

As the table shows, Q4 has not been the strongest quarter for nitrogen in the last three years. Also of note, despite the supply problems facing the market in Q3 this year, the Index averaged a comparatively modest 169.30. With a current year high of just 191 (in Q1), and with the Index close to the year-to-date average, Q4 appears unlikely to see a high average value for nitrogen.

Daily market news and analysis, comprehensive weekly assessments and monthly forecasts are available through the Profercy Nitrogen Service. 

Nitrogen Index Quarterly & Yearly Averages

[tabs][tab title="Profercy Nitrogen Index - 2012 Onwards"]

Index falls 1.84 this week and has now fallen nearly 8 points in three weeks.

[/tab][tab title="Profercy Nitrogen Index - 2009 Onwards"]

Index falls 1.84 this week and has now fallen nearly 8 points in three weeks.

[/tab][/tabs]

Profercy World Nitrogen Index: Methodology

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index is published every week and is based on price ranges provided by the Profercy Nitrogen Service. This includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, AN, ammonium sulphate and ammonia. A full methodology can be found here.

Free Trials of the Profercy Nitrogen Service

Profercy's Nitrogen Service includes daily news, weekly analysis and monthly forecast reports. For more detailed information on specific products and individual markets, please sign up for a free trial or for more information on the Profercy Nitrogen Service, please click here.