Profercy World Nitrogen Index

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index declined by 2.35 points week on week to 196.83 as fresh demand for north African urea evaporated during the week leading up India’s latest tender. Ahead of the tender, there was also a somewhat typical slowdown in activity in other regions leading to modest price erosion in some markets.

In Brazil, prices declined by $5-7pt week on week into the $410s pt cfr. US Gulf barge values declined by a similar measure with the market adjusting to the removal of import tariffs on major fertilizer products.

Elsewhere, a Dangote tender failed to result in a quick sale with negotiations ongoing as traders awaited results from India and demand from other markets was lukewarm at best.

With regards to India, 4.6m. tonnes were offered into the Indian Potash Limited’s (IPL) tender for shipment to 15 January, although this figure includes double counting. The buyer set a pre-tender purchase target of 2.5m. tonnes of urea.

The lowest offers to IPL were just under $420pt cfr for both coasts with these figures not wildly out of line with expectations. They did however result in Middle East values moving around $10pt lower from last week to either side of $405pt fob.

While the Indian tender was the main event of the week, there was a very notable drop off in demand for Egyptian and Algerian tonnes. Over the previous two weeks, the scramble for tonnes that could arrive into Europe before the imposition of CBAM on 1 January led to prices surging above $500pt fob.

After producers sold out of these earlier tonnes, trader interest for further volumes was only evident for much smaller volumes and at significantly lower levels. Indeed, over the last week, producer offers declined quickly with the last round of offers down to $470pt fob and yet to solicit buyer interest.

The Index stands at 199.18 points.