Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 17 – Nitrogen Index consolidates as India secures up 2.5m. tonnes

Having jumped nearly 40 points last week, the Nitrogen Index eased slightly to 387.48. The Index remains at levels not seen since April 2022.

The Index lost ground primarily on the back of a major depreciation in US Gulf granular urea values. The Nola barge market reacted strongly last week to short-lived hopes of the Strait of Hormuz opening to vessel traffic. April barges traded down to $610-615per short ton (ps ton), $170ps ton below the highs seen mid-April, before recovering slightly in recent days.

With planting starting in the US, the market is now weighing up availability in Nola after strong imports in March and April. However, May arrivals look set to be low with offshore suppliers focused on other markets since the Middle East crisis began.

Global fob values have remained firm with India scooping up 2.5m. tonnes of urea for shipment to 14 June in the latest tender. This has allowed many producers to build solid order books at a time when high international values have impacted liquidity in other markets.

The scale of the price premium offered by India is significant. East coast stand at $292per tonne above the lowest cfr values seen in the US in the past seven days.

Amsul markets have been mixed, with standard grade values in China firming while compacted and granular offers have fallen.

For ammonia, market sentiment and price direction remains divided between East and West as the loss of over 300,000t per month of material from the Middle East continues to fuel upward price pressure across Asia Pacific.