Nitrogen Index holds - Urea market set for a new round of price discovery

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Profercy's Nitrogen Index held at 170.76 this week (up 0.16 on last week). The urea market in the West has seen traders covering in and some spot demand evident, supporting prices for prilled and granular urea. Egyptian prices have held particularly well with the gap between Egyptian granular and Middle East granular reaching $100pt.

However, May looks less certain and our weekly report (published yesterday) noted that the market appears to be headed for a new round of price discovery with demand in some major markets expected to ease.

Evidence of this, and another interesting development, has been the fall in urea prices in the US. The last two weeks have seen a $35ps ton drop in the low-end of Profercy's price range for US Gulf urea. While not directly factored into the Nitrogen Index, prices have a bearing on the Middle East fob price. In recent weeks, the Arab Gulf price range utilised in the Index has been wide (up to $100pt), with the netbacks for US cargoes propping up the top end. The anticipated depreciation in US prices over the coming months will have a significant negative impact on the Index.

For other nitrogen products there have been no major price changes influencing the Index, although it is worth noting that the ammonia market remains firm for the moment.

For further information on urea prices and those for other nitrogen products, you can request a free trial of the Profercy Nitrogen Service. This will provide our latest weekly reports covering all major markets and products, as well as regular analysis and market updates alongside our monthly forecast reports. Further information can be found here.