Traders eye East to West opportunities amid North African supply squeeze
Nitrogen markets remain stable to firm with Profercy’s Nitrogen Price Index recovering the modest drop last week. As anticipated, the fall last week was widely viewed as a market correction. While the high end of Profercy’s price ranges for both prilled and granular urea have fallen back, the low ends for Yuzhnyy prills, as well as Middle East and Egyptian granular urea, have not been under the same pressure.
The recent flattening out followed a dramatic run up in urea prices, particularly for granular urea in the US, in the week ending 24 January. This led to a cautious mood amongst buyers who were unwilling to accept further price gains. With buyers holding back, the high prices paid in previous weeks were not possible.
Focus on the US
With the US a major importer of granular urea at this time of the year, the market there is a focal point for all those influenced by global urea prices. The graph below shows the price ranges quoted by Profercy for granular urea barges (basis $ps ton fob Nola) in the US Gulf. While these prices do not directly feed into Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index, they do reflect the same trend. As can be seen, prices went over $415ps ton fob in the week ending 24 January (quoted 23 Jan below). Wary of any further run-up, prices dropped back over $20ps ton before picking up again over the last week.
The Profercy World Nitrogen Index ended the week at 191.68, up from 191.46 the previous week.
The Profercy World Nitrogen Index is published every week and is based on price ranges provided by the Profercy Nitrogen Service. This includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, AN, ammonium sulphate and ammonia.
Profercy’s Nitrogen Service includes daily news, weekly analysis and monthly forecast reports. For more detailed information on specific products and individual markets, please sign up for a free trial or for more information on the Profercy Nitrogen Service, please click here.
The methodology behind the Profercy World Nitrogen Index can be found here.
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