Supply concerns at key production hubs push up international ammonia prices
The lowest offers received in today’s urea purchasing inquiry by MMTC are some $5-7pt higher than lowest offers in the first half October RCF tender. Through the latest tender, MMTC intends to book cargoes for shipment through to 6 January 2021.
13 participants submitted offers totalling 2.434m. tonnes in the inquiry, well below the volume offered in the previous tender. The 9 October tender saw 3.63m. tonnes offered with 2.2m. tonnes subsequently booked.
The lowest offers in the latest tender were from Dreymoor for 200,000t on the west coast at $284.77pt cfr, and Swiss Singapore for 46,000t on the east coast at $286.50pt cfr. Both are expected to have been basis positions either in the FSU, Middle East or SE Asia.
Pricing in the previous RCF tender of 9 October was $279.25pt cfr east coast and $279.94pt cfr west coast.
The vast majority of offers in this inquiry, over 2m. tonnes, were offered over $290pt cfr east/west coast. Only 265,000t were offered on a fob basis. GPIC Bahrain submitted the lowest fob offer at $282pt fob.
While netbacks on both coasts are below supplier expectations, these remain the best returns available to the majority of origins.
MMTC has moved quickly to issue counter offers at the lowest offer levels. Notably, this includes an fob counter offer at $282pt fob Adabiya/Arab Gulf, some $10pt above the implied netback from the west coast counter offer. Participants now have until 4pm IST on 2 December to confirm volumes.
By Neha Popat, Nitrogen Market Reporter
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