The Outlook to 2030

Urea: What does the future hold after the long decline?

About the report

Published October 2016, Profercy’s latest long-term nitrogen forecast provides a detailed assessment of the prospects for global nitrogen prices to 2030. The report is vital reading for business and observers at all levels of the supply chain and has been well received by producers, traders, importers and financial analysts across the world. 

The events of the past year have been a shock for nitrogen producers worldwide. Lower prices were anticipated in 2015 and 2016 with new capacity outstripping demand growth. However, the collapse in energy prices added another dimension, namely reducing the competitiveness of low-cost producers and lowering the threshold at which so-called marginal suppliers would shut down to restore market equilibrium.

Shocks and huge price volatility are nothing new to the urea market as the chart above illustrates and there have been both positives and negatives for producers over the past four and a half decades.

The latest shock to hit the urea market is serious but less dramatic than the events of the mid-1970s or 2008/09. The key questions now are:

    • How will the urea market develop from the current slump?
    • Is the long-term future for the industry as bleak as today’s price levels might suggest?

The aim of Profercy’s latest long term report is to put forward a sound, logical view of what the future holds for the world urea market with implications drawn for UAN, ammonium nitrate and ammonia.

To receive more information, please fill in the form below. 

The 45 page report includes:

  • The Supply Outlook to 2030, including critical analysis of worldwide supply additions
  • Regional and Global Demand Forecasts – covering all major markets
  • Cost curve analysis including a long term assessment of energy patterns affecting  global urea production
  • An assessment of future world trade patterns as US domestic production builds reducing import requirements.
  • The Price Outlook to 2030 – including price forecasts for prilled and granular urea in the East and West
  • NEW: The Price Outlook for AN, UAN and Ammonia

Audience: Producers, financial analysts, traders, importers and distributors, government agencies

Price forecasts and product coverage includes:

  • Granular Urea: Middle East, North Africa, Russia, China, US Gulf, Brazil
  • Prilled Urea: China, Black Sea/Baltic
  • AN, UAN and Ammonia

For a detailed overview of the report, please fill in the form below.

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