CF Industries reported a third quarter loss for the first time since 2010 this week. The company noted that selling prices have been low due to global oversupply of nitrogen fertilizer and lower industrial demand. Prices in the US fell for much of Q3 and often traded below the international market. Indeed, in July this…
Yara International ASA announced today weaker third-quarter results compared with a year earlier. Third-quarter EBITDA excluding special items was down 35% at NOK 2,968 million compared with NOK 4,614 million a year earlier. The company noted that weaker fertilizer prices were only partly offset by higher deliveries of Yara-produced products, lower energy costs and currency translation…
Profercy’s latest long term price forecast, The Urea Outlook to 2030, was published in October 2016. While the latest report looks to the future, this blog provides an overview of price developments since 1970, as well as the factors that have contributed to five year price decline across global nitrogen markets. Urea accounts for over…
Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index currently stands at 94.90pts and has tracked sideways through September. However, with modest gains for urea and ammonium nitrate prices evident in the past two weeks, the Index could soon move over the 95 point mark for the first time since June. Urea: Indian demand supports producers in the East Global…
Mid-July saw Profercy’s Nitrogen Index at its lowest level since the 2009 start date. However, international urea prices gained towards the end of the month and the market was stable to firm throughout August. Black Sea prilled urea prices are currently $15-20pt above the low levels seen in July, while Egyptian granular urea has gained…
Profercy Nitrogen Forecast 25 May 2016: “The June-Q3 trade balance is in surplus by 18%. While the more balanced situation for June should lead to some stability in the next few weeks, July appears heavily in surplus. Supply cutbacks and lower prices are needed to balance the market in Q3.” July has been a difficult…
After a difficult January for nitrogen producers, global urea markets are currently on a firmer footing. Significantly, urea values in the US Gulf ran-up quickly in the last 10 days, moving up $20-30ps ton to over $245ps ton for March barges. A number of factors have supported the run-up, including the fact that the US…
Negative start to 2016; nitrogen prices under pressure Plentiful global supply and low energy environment undermines potential for a sustained run-up in prices It has been clear for some time that 2016 would be a difficult year for urea markets. Q1 has traditionally provided the best opportunities for producers to manage a run-up in global prices. However,…
2015 has played out as expected for urea prices. The market has been characterised by over-supply and depressed demand. Of the major urea markets, only India and Mexico have seen a sizeable increase in volumes of imported urea (basis latest data). Imports have lagged 2014 volumes in other major markets, and in the case of…
The below entry draws heavily on Profercy’s latest Nitrogen Market Forecast. To obtain a copy, you can register for a free trial of Profercy’s Nitrogen Service here. It has been another challenging year for urea. As evidenced by the graph below, average nitrogen values prices have fallen for three years. Indeed, the Nitrogen Index, heavily…